[转帖]牛刀：楼市炒家空前大逃亡接盘人会很惨

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<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">你见过在北京二手房成交量一天达到</span><span lang="EN-US">1273</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套吗？你见过上海十多人抢一套二手房吗？你见过深圳现场拍卖一套二手房价高者得吗？这些都是近来发生的新闻事实。各大媒体，地产新闻铺天盖地，轰炸着城市居民脆弱的心灵，于是，大家一股脑的心甘情愿的唯恐买不到房子似的去抢购二手房。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">967</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套！深圳规划与国土资源委公布的最新数据显示，</span><chsdate m="" wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="20" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">深圳二手房单日成交再创历史新高。截止到</span><chsdate m="" wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="20" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，本月深圳二手房成交已超过</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万套，而上周</span><span lang="EN-US">4126</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套的成交量已与年初的月成交量相当。一周的成交量相当于一个月，一天的成交量屡创历史新高，相当于正常情况下</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">天的成交量。是什么人在哄抢房子？</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">再来看看北京，来自北京房地产交易管理网最新数据显示，北京二手房近日创下了日均成交一千多套的历史最高纪录。据统计，</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月以来，二手房成交量已突破</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万套，单日平均成交达</span><span lang="EN-US">1031</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套，相比以往日均六七百套的成交来说大幅上扬。按照目前发展趋势预测，</span><span lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年北京二手房总成交量将突破</span><span lang="EN-US">27</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万套，超过</span><span lang="EN-US">2006</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年</span><span lang="EN-US">-2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年三年的总和。二手房市场迎来十多年发展历程上的最</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">辉煌</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的时期。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">上海的二手房同样疯狂。二手房市场已超过一手房成为上海楼市成交主力，</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日，汉宇地产公布的最新统计数据显示，</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月份，上海一手房成交量为</span><span lang="EN-US">13195</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套，而同期二手房成交量为总成交套数达到了</span><span lang="EN-US">21177</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套，二手房成交量为新房成交量的</span><span lang="EN-US">1.6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">倍。据统计，</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月份整月全市一手商品住宅供应量为</span><span lang="EN-US">128.64</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平米（</span><span lang="EN-US">11481</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套），成交量为</span><span lang="EN-US">150.4</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平米（</span><span lang="EN-US">13195</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套）。两者的差值为</span><span lang="EN-US">21.75</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平米（</span><span lang="EN-US">1714</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套）。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">与成交猛增相匹配的是二手房挂牌量的暴增。市场人士认为，北京、深圳、上海一夜之间，到处都是挂牌出售二手房。从上海来说，</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月份，二手房成交量的</span><span lang="EN-US">21177</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套与挂牌量的</span><span lang="EN-US">17549</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套之间的差距高达</span><span lang="EN-US">3628</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套，占</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月份挂牌总量的</span><span lang="EN-US">21%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。但即使是这样，与上海全市截止到</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日高达</span><span lang="EN-US">77908</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">套的总计可售挂牌量相比，目前的供求缺口消化存量需要</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个月以上。</span>
        </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">明眼人一看就知道，这是楼市蹦盘前夕，中国楼市炒家大逃亡。炒家逃亡一点也不奇怪，他们已经很清楚这些房价是怎么涨上来的也同样会怎么跌下去。奇怪的是，居然有那么多人在那么高的价位去接盘。据北京多家中介公司统计，</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月中上旬京城二手房价已经达到了</span><span lang="EN-US">12435</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">平方米，比</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月同期上涨超过</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。目前上市的房源中有八成业主直接提价</span><span lang="EN-US">4%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">以上。不仅如此，成交过程中继续加价的比比皆是。甚至部分业主为了促进成交，直接将市场价提高</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万以上挂牌，给购房者留下</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万</span><span lang="EN-US">-2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万的议价空间。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">不得不惊叹中国楼市炒家的谋略，逃亡都如此精彩。也不得不哀叹中国老百姓的悲哀，明明是这么高的房价，却偏偏要去接最后一棒。从击鼓传花的游戏的最后一棒中，我明白了鲁迅先生那句至理名言的真谛了——哀其不幸，怒其不争。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">其实仔细一想，这帮楼市炒家没想什么高招，只不过是在媒体四处散播政府优惠政策到头了，通货膨胀就要来了，你看房价一直涨再不买明年还要涨。就是这些，可是，炒家比谁心里都清楚，从澳大利亚加息开始，就已经注定了全球</span><span lang="EN-US">G20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">国家已经面临退出刺激经济计划的艰难选择，中国央行加息是迟早的事，房价的好日子已经到头了。所以，炒家纷纷大量抛售手中的物业。本来抛售物业是应该降价的，但是，不，就像中国楼市的去库存化，在政府的帮助下偏偏涨价来去库存，结果取得了意想不到的成功。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">这就是中国。欧洲许多国家从金融海啸以来，房价下跌了</span><span lang="EN-US">60%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，到目前为止，尽管美国楼市连续</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个月回升，但是，至今也没有看见异常涨价的迹象。只有中国面对即将到来的危机，国民心态是如此的脆弱。根本用不了多久，一切将真相大白，然而居然有这么多的人走不出黎明前的黑暗。</span></p>