[转帖]福布斯：中国可能面临经济泡沫的破灭

朱成碧

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">美国福布斯</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">(Forbes)</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">杂志网</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">月</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">日报导称，中国、印度、俄国和巴西被称为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">“</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">金砖四国</span><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">(BRICs)</span></font><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">，近年来四国已成为世界经济的重要组成部分，但随着中国等发展中国家的发展过热现象增加，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">“</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">金砖四国</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">”</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">经济泡沫化的趋势有增无减。从近期种种金融股市的迹象看来，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">“</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">金砖四国</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">”</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">的泡沫化，可能会先从中国开始，并可能殃及其他国家。中国经济泡沫化的最大危机目前在股市上非常明显。一旦中国股市开始泡沫化，将影响消费信心和商业投资。报导指出，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">2005</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">年的上一次熊市结束时，中国老百姓有近</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">9%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">的资产投入股市，但现在已经冲到</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">22%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">。许多大企业把资金投资到别的公司中，就像当年日本一样。一旦一个企业出现出问题，就会产生骨牌效应。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">1990</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">年的日本就有前车之鉴。有研究指出，三分之一的中国上市公司</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">年上半年的利润是来自股票的增值及其他投资方面的收入。所以如果中国的股票出问题，公司利润和投资就会严重受损。银行也会因为投资人把贷款投放股市而被殃及。据估计有</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">的银行贷款已经毫无表现，这一数字曾高达</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">，比官方的数字要高很多。报导说，由于越来越多的中国大企业的股票在美国上市，因此中国股市一旦泡沫化，将会殃及美国和世界其他地区。报导指出，中国等发展中国家的发展仍依靠对美国出口，中国的中产阶级没有足够的消费能力来改变市场现状。而迹象显示美国的消费者可能结束长达</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">年的借贷消费历史，一旦美国房市疲软，民众开始省钱储蓄，花在购买海外进口产品方面的钱减少，这意味着</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">“</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">金砖四国</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN; mso-ascii-font-family: 宋体;"><font face="Times New Roman">”</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">再靠大批向美国出口而暴富的好景将不再。如果美国经济衰退，势必对能源出口为大宗的俄国经济造成较大影响。报导说，长远来讲，中国的前景仍较光明，但近期来看，中国经济今天的光环很可能变成明天的阴影，就像日本</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">1980</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">年代的光辉在</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><font face="Times New Roman">1990</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;">年代变成金融黑洞一样。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN;"><p></p></span></p>