牛刀：1至10月中国房价真实涨幅为30.8%

冷猫

<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">11</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">14</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">日</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，本人应邀在东方世家房地产论坛上发表对房地产发展趋势的看法，择取一个观点和网友分享。</span></b></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">日</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，国家统计局公布说：</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月份，全国</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">70</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3.9%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，涨幅比</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月份扩大</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1.1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个百分点；环比上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.7%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，涨幅与</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月份相同。这个数据是个非常可笑的数据，不要说我们这些天天在研究数据的人不信，就是普通城市居民，也没有一个人会相信，中国今年的房价同比仅仅上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3.9%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">？</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">中国</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">70</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个大中城市今年的房价可以说是暴涨，是人是鬼心里都很清楚。在巨大的新增贷款的疯狂投放下，在产业政策、货币政策、财税政策的无序放松下，在地方政府、无良开发商以及无良开发商的走狗的疯狂叫嚣下，哪一个城市的房价不是暴涨？在一线城市来讲，随便列举一个城市的数据，都是暴涨</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">50%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">以上，为什么国家统计局的数据仅仅只是上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3.9%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">呢？是市场错了还是国家统计局错了？一个堂堂的国家统计局为什么又会出这种低级的错误呢？</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">高房价对民众对社会财富的疯狂掠夺，已经到了丧尽天良令人发指的地步，用数据来遮羞有用吗？我想是没有用的，起码历史不会忘记，人民不会忘记。在</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年的中国，多少人的财富被高房价洗劫一空，还将承受几十年的债务，还将面临税费的增加、利息的增加和生活成本的进一步提高；多少人为了一套房，被迫拿出两代人的积蓄，仅仅只是交了一个首期；多少人在黑夜呐喊，多少人在荒原呼叫，仅仅只是为了给民众争取一个合适的居所。</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">说房价上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3.9%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">是一个错误，有国家统计局自己的数据为证。国家统计局说，</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1-10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月，全国商品房销售面积</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">66369</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万平方米，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">48.4%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">。</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1-10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月，商品房销售额</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">31529</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">79.2%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">。请注意这样两个数据：商品房销售面积同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">48.4%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，商品房销售额同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">79.2%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">。没有房价的疯涨，会有销售金额比销售面积的增长涨幅高出</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">30.8%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">吗？这</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">30.8%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">不就是房价的真正涨幅吗？</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">有勇气就把这个数据公布，这才是真正的房价的涨幅。高出同期</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">涨幅的四倍，高出城乡居民收入涨幅的</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">倍。我不知道还有什么理由给中国民众一个合理的解释，说中国房价没有泡沫，说中国房价还要上涨，说中国老百姓还住得起现在的房子。</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">30.8%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">啊，一年的房价涨幅，试问哪个国家有过？不错，日本是有过，那是在</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1988</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年，而</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1989</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年日本房价因此泡沫破灭，日本国民为此用长达</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年的时间买单，换一句话说，难道也将因此而让中国国民白干</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年吗？</span></p>