[转帖]牛刀：回收流动性才能遏制高房价

不打不精神

<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">中国社会终于在反对高房价问题上，达成了一致意见。当然，遏制高房价的本质是要打破官商勾结掠夺民众财富的利益链，捍卫作为中国人的起码居住权。但是，从目前来说，用回收财税政策来遏制高房价是不可能成功的，除非开征物业税。如果不能开征物业税，那么能够遏制高房价的唯一办法和手段，就是回收流动性。</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">为此我们必须认识到这一轮房价上涨的本质，不是什么供求关系，更不是中国的社会的购买力足以支撑如此之高的房价，而是货币超量发行，造成流动性泛滥。如果只是流动性泛滥，都不足以将房价推到如此之高，而是因为货币的超量发行，导致人民币的持币人对币值的不信任，就像现在的朝鲜，谁还会相信货币的价值呢？这种对人民币币值不信任的危机，已经全面爆发，反映在房价暴涨上就是房地产的货币化。市场宁肯相信房子，不再相信货币。</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">这是一种比高房价更可怕的危机。尽管回收财税政策，可能只是中国抵御高房价的第一步。但是，因为房价泡沫太大，仅仅回收财税政策，力度显然不够。当一个政策的发布，对市场无关痛痒的时候，这个政策的用意就让人无法猜度。在这种卖多少地的钱，都会被地方政府挥霍一空的时候，靠增大土地供应来遏制高房价，无异于与虎谋皮。所以，回收流动性已经迫在眉睫。</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">我们看看央行刚刚公布的数据：</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月末，广义货币供应量</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">(M2)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">余额为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">59.46</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">29.74%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，增幅比上年末高</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">11.92</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个百分点，比上月末高</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.23</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个百分点。狭义货币供应量</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">(M1)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">余额为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">21.25</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">34.63%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，增幅比上月末高</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2.60</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个百分点。市场货币流通量</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">(M0)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">余额为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3.63</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">14.99%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">。</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1-11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">月净投放现金</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2125</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿元，同比多投放</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">638</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">M1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">高达</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">21.15</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万亿，房价焉能不涨？</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">如果加大回收流动性的力度，一线城市一两年根本就不需要在建房子，囤积在各类炒家手上的房子就会源源不断流向市场，数额之大，绝非普通老百姓所能想象，也绝非决策层所愿意看见。这样即回收了流动性，又增强了市场供应，一箭双雕，岂不两全其美？现在央行在用票据等方式回收流动性，只能对商业银行形成压力，对市场不构成任何影响，只有采取货币工具回收流动性，提高存款准备金率和加息双管齐下，房价不遏自制。</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">回收流动性可以增强人民币持币人对币值稳定的信任，从而稳定社会的情绪，增强对未来生活的信心。币值不稳，则人心不稳；人心不稳，则天下大乱。促进人心的稳定，首先要让老百姓感到安宁。居住都不得安宁，人心又何以稳定？</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">当然，回收流动性可能最早影响的是股市。比方越南，一开始加息，股市暴跌</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">4.5%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">。可是也正是越南加息，稳定了人心，经过短短的三个交易日的振荡，越南股市开始盘升，越南经济也开始展露复苏的迹象。中国央行加息，同样会对股市产生影响，而能增强市场的信心。而这种信心，才是真的比黄金更重要，而且比黄金更难得。如果不回收流动性的遏制房价，那只能是逗老百姓玩。</span></p>