牛刀：6540万闲置房将引发中国版次贷危机

八戒哭了

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 15pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体;"><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">据社科院城调队调查显示，中国</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">660</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">多个城市现有空置房</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">6540</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套，可供</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2.6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿人居住。目前，社科院城调队没有证实这么大量的房子为什么空置。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">中国城市住宅空置率一直饱受争议。开发商从行业的角度认为，只有没有卖出去的房子方为空置，从开发商的角度来说，空置率仅为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">4%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">；而社会学家争论说，即使卖出去了而长期无人居住，也为空置，而且这种空置不仅仅只是浪费资源，也隐藏着巨大的金融风险和社会隐患。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">社科院城调队说，全国闲置房共有</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">6540</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套间，在建房有</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1250</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套间，如果以每套间</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">人居住的话，闲房和在建房相加共有</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">7790</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套，可供</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2.6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿人口居住。我国城镇人口为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">5.5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿，假设这个</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">7790</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套的</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">50%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">投向市场，就可供</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1.3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">亿人口使用。</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">7790</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套间是社科院从全国各地供电公司调查的数据。标准是，每户每月电表零读数，且</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">个月以上。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">按全国房价</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">元每平方米户均约为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">70</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">平方米的平均水平来算，全国城市闲置的的住宅总值约为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">18.3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万亿（不包括</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1250</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套在建房），除去两成首付，在银行的房贷余额为</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">14.6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万亿，相当于</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">的</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">45%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">。也就是说，中国因为住房限制而造成的资源浪费高达半年的</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">，而且，风险度很高。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">一般认为，这些没有人居住的房子，大多为楼市炒家进行投机购买的。而楼市炒家的用于炒楼的资金，有很多是</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年在银行宽松的信贷政策下，从银行拿的贷款。不排除有一部分国际热钱在中国大肆囤房。中国的住宅成了不折不扣的金融投机工具。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">很多人不知道为什么开征物业税阻力这么大，实际上一部分权贵的资金大多用于投机购房上面，他们不愿意付出囤积房产所应支出的税务成本，再加上有权有势，可以左右国家的税务政策。不仅如此，他们还雇请几位教授，大肆鼓吹中国的物业税</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">100</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年也开征不了，致使本届两会的提案被搁置。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">由此看来，中国民生住宅的解决任重而道远。其中最主要的就是这</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">6540</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">万套空置住宅的解决，这不仅拷问中国的社会财富的平衡机制能否建立，也在测度中国经济孕育的风险是否得以化解，中国民生住宅的问题是否得以解决。更重要的是这些资源的浪费和社会财富的囤积已经影响了一个民族的振兴。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">从全球经济情况来看，中国经济的危机依然存在，其中一个隐患就是这些闲置住宅隐藏的金融风险。在</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年小阳春时，很多购买住宅的是假按揭，如果房价持续上涨，那么炒家就会抛售出去，而房价进入下降通道后，很多一部分将转成银行坏账。只是现在不知道数额有多大，因此还不知道是谁在裸泳。</span></font></font></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><font color="#000000"><font size="3">&nbsp;<wbr></wbr></font></font></span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font color="#000000"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">从我对</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">年上半年中国楼市制造小阳春的情况的了解，因当时房价上涨趋势不明，大量的开发商和炒房客到农村借来大批身份证件，进行楼市投机行为。最早借一个身份证件只需</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">200</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">元手续费，后来涨到了</span><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times new roman';">元。数额之大，令人瞠目结舌。也许，中国版的次贷危机，就要从这些闲置的住宅中暴露出来。</span></font></font></p></span>

不打不精神

<p>那为什么就不降价呢。</p>