[转帖]牛刀：房价泡沫将从二三线城市开始破灭

和平

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">我建议所有不顾民族大义、毫无廉耻、唱涨房价的人，都去石家庄看一看。你们无视中国老百姓的购买力，无视中国经济的空前困难，继续以垄断和掠夺的方式，炒买炒卖民众赖以居住的房子，大量衍生经济泡沫，最后会是一个什么样的结果？</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">今天的中国证券报报道：河北省会石家庄市的房价</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月份同比下降</span><span lang="EN-US">5.5%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，同比降幅居全国首位</span><span lang="EN-US">;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">二手住房价格同比下滑</span><span lang="EN-US">7.5%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，排在第二。这是石家庄房价自</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月同比下降</span><span lang="EN-US">5.8%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">以来，再次大幅度下降。石家庄市房价已经连续两月同比降幅全国第一。这仅仅只是一个开始，只是一个表象，更为严峻的深层矛盾将就此爆发。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">熟悉石家庄的业内人士都知道，今年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US">22</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日，石家庄市政府颁布刺激楼市的政策，明令取消</span><span lang="EN-US">9070</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">政策。这个早已名存实亡的政策，是没有必要专门取消的，因为所有中央政府制定的宏观调控政策都已名存实亡，专门颁布一个文件，无非是想以信心刺激一下市场。到了这个地步，表明政府早已知道市场的真实情况，只是不愿意从民众的立场来考虑问题罢了，希望抱住开发商的大腿，把市场弄起来。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">石家庄房地产的真实情况如何呢？</span><span lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年底，河北省启动</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">三年大变样</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">工程，石家庄先是大量拆迁改造，再通过把地高价卖出，来获得新的城建投资资金。大拆迁短期内带来大量住房需求短期内急剧增加，致使</span><span lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年石家庄房价上涨在全国排名前列。两年后，在那一场大拆迁中获得土地的楼盘，纷纷开盘。</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年石家庄市土地报建数量十分惊人，算上回迁改造面积有</span><span lang="EN-US">4500</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平方米之多。而与之对应的，是弱小的需求</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">石家庄</span><span lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年房地产市场最好的时候，新房销量也只有</span><span lang="EN-US">170</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平方米。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">4500</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平方米的供应，一年只有</span><span lang="EN-US">170</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平方米的需求，造成了石家庄市到处都是未完成的工地的凄惨景象。然而，政府已经没有退路，只有加快买地速度，才能保证土地财政的这根链条不至于断裂。</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年，石家庄市卖地</span><span lang="EN-US">892.24</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">公顷，政府土地出让纯收益</span><span lang="EN-US">18.78</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元</span><span lang="EN-US">;2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年石家庄卖地</span><span lang="EN-US">1054.66</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">公顷，政府土地纯收益</span><span lang="EN-US">25.86</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元。石家庄市政府</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年土地出让纯收益目标是</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元，在</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年根本没完成的情况下，</span><span lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年又再次加码，提升到了</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元。石家庄市市长艾文礼</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="11" month="8" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">向</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">全国百家媒体</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">介绍石家庄市经济运行情况时说，今明两年石家庄计划投资</span><span lang="EN-US">1111</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元，做</span><span lang="EN-US">146</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个城建项目。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">而现在面临的实际情况是，房价地价同时开始暴跌，房地产泡沫已经开始破灭。同时，面临同样严峻的局面的还有合肥、大连、成都、长沙、太原、武汉、西安等二三线城市。大连在建在售在开发的项目</span><span lang="EN-US">3000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">多万平方米，而一年的销售仅为</span><span lang="EN-US">600</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平方米；长沙在建在售在开发的项目</span><span lang="EN-US">2600</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万平方米，一年的销售是</span><span lang="EN-US">400</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">多万平方米。然而，谁也停不下来，为什么？土地财政的链条不能断。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">土地财政成了高房价的巨大推手，在许多二三线城市表现了同质化的趋向。因此，带来的市场反映也基本相似。由于购买力与商品价格完全脱节，房价的暴跌在所难免，只是市场在寻找一个暴跌的突破点而已。原来市场的视角一直在关注一线城市，而现在的情况是，流动货币主要集中在一线城市，造成了市场旺销的假象，引起了某些错觉。现在看来，这一轮房价泡沫的破灭将从二三线城市开始，逐步蔓延到一线城市，引发高房价的全面崩盘。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">要维护高房价不崩盘，最好的办法是分三年时间给购买自住性普通住宅的城市居民予以货币补贴，数额大约为</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万亿。中央政府今年在</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万亿的刺激经济的投资中，拿出</span><span lang="EN-US">9000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿兴建社会保障住宅，截止</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月已经投下了</span><span lang="EN-US">3800</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿，现在看来是杯水车薪。如果无法拿出这</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万亿，如果城市居民收入水平无法提高到与房价相均衡的水准，那剩下的只有一条路：泡沫破灭，究竟是谁来买单？</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;以上转载自牛刀博客：<a href="http://blog.ifeng.com/article/3057976.html">http://blog.ifeng.com/article/3057976.html</a></span></p>